Alternative credit scoring
Assess the risk of unbanked customers from their mobile-money and telecom footprint.
The challenge
In West Africa, a majority of adults have no formal banking history. Without a comprehensive credit bureau, microfinance institutions and fintechs either forgo a vast market or lend blind, with high default rates and provisions that weigh on profitability.
Yet these same customers leave a rich digital footprint: mobile-money transaction regularity, telecom top-ups, geographic stability, counterparty network. The challenge is not a lack of data, but the ability to turn it into a reliable, explainable risk score that meets prudential requirements.
Our approach
ADST builds an alternative scoring engine trained on behavioural signals from mobile money and telecom. We engineer several hundred variables — transaction recency, frequency and amount, income seasonality, location stability, financial social-network density — cleaned and validated through reproducible pipelines.
The model core is a calibrated gradient boosting engine whose every decision is made transparent through SHAP values: the loan officer sees exactly which factors push the score up or down. This explainability is essential for regulatory audit and for guarding against discriminatory bias.
We deliver a real-time score via API, together with a lending threshold optimised to your risk appetite, a recommended credit limit, and a strategy to gradually raise the ceiling based on observed repayment behaviour.
Architecture
- Feature engineering: mobile-money time aggregations, graph features over the transaction network
- Model: XGBoost / LightGBM with probability calibration (Platt/isotonic)
- Explainability: SHAP at individual and global level, group fairness checks
- Serving: real-time scoring API, monthly retraining, drift monitoring
A microfinance institution doubles its eligible portfolio while cutting loan losses by a third, sharply improving its cost of risk.