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Alternative credit scoring

Assess the risk of unbanked customers from their mobile-money and telecom footprint.

-32%
Default-rate reduction
0.84
Discriminative power (AUC)
+2.4x
Newly eligible population
<300 ms
Scoring decision

The challenge

In West Africa, a majority of adults have no formal banking history. Without a comprehensive credit bureau, microfinance institutions and fintechs either forgo a vast market or lend blind, with high default rates and provisions that weigh on profitability.

Yet these same customers leave a rich digital footprint: mobile-money transaction regularity, telecom top-ups, geographic stability, counterparty network. The challenge is not a lack of data, but the ability to turn it into a reliable, explainable risk score that meets prudential requirements.

Our approach

ADST builds an alternative scoring engine trained on behavioural signals from mobile money and telecom. We engineer several hundred variables — transaction recency, frequency and amount, income seasonality, location stability, financial social-network density — cleaned and validated through reproducible pipelines.

The model core is a calibrated gradient boosting engine whose every decision is made transparent through SHAP values: the loan officer sees exactly which factors push the score up or down. This explainability is essential for regulatory audit and for guarding against discriminatory bias.

We deliver a real-time score via API, together with a lending threshold optimised to your risk appetite, a recommended credit limit, and a strategy to gradually raise the ceiling based on observed repayment behaviour.

Architecture

  • Feature engineering: mobile-money time aggregations, graph features over the transaction network
  • Model: XGBoost / LightGBM with probability calibration (Platt/isotonic)
  • Explainability: SHAP at individual and global level, group fairness checks
  • Serving: real-time scoring API, monthly retraining, drift monitoring
Models used
Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)Gradient Boosting (LightGBM)Regularised logistic regression (baseline)SHAP explainabilityGraph features (transaction network)
Data required
Mobile-money transaction historyTelecom top-up and usage data (CDR)Geographic stability signals (cell towers)Repayment history of past loansSelf-declared socio-demographic data
Return on investment

A microfinance institution doubles its eligible portfolio while cutting loan losses by a third, sharply improving its cost of risk.

Relevant sectors
MicrofinanceFintechBanking
Related services
FintechData & AnalyticsIntelligence Artificielle

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